Flood of child migrants could recede, but still be second-largest ever

Fusion

A new analysis shows the number of unaccompanied minors crossing into the U.S. illegally could drop by 39 percent this year but still be the second-largest influx of children on record.

Ian Gordon of Mother Jones reported the numbers on Friday, obtained from the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a D.C.-based human rights group. WOLA stressed that the projections were “very tentative” and based on a small sample size.

Fusion_Child-Migrant-Border-Apprehensions-Chart

The organization estimates that 41,000 unaccompanied minors could be apprehended at the border in the 2015 fiscal year, which runs from October 1, 2014 to September 30, 2015. That’s a drop from the 68,500 kids caught at the border last year, but it’s still a lot of children crossing alone.

WOLA based their predictions on existing apprehension data for the first four months of the fiscal year (Oct. 1 to Jan. 31), factoring in historical migration patterns, which fluctuate from…

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