Why Your Heart Disease Risk Might Be Lower Than You Think

TIME

For decades, doctors have relied on the undisputed champion of heart disease risk assessment: the Framingham Risk Score. It emerged from a massive study of heart disease risk factors in more than 5,000 men and women and pointed out advanced age, being male, smoking, having diabetes, high total cholesterol, low levels of good cholesterol and high blood pressure. Scoring higher on these factors meant you had a greater chance of developing heart problems in the next 10 years, and most successive models included some version of these core culprits.

Now, scientists led by Dr. Michael Blaha, director of clinical research at the Ciccarone Center for Prevention of Heart Disease at Johns Hopkins Medicine, have published a new study in the Annals of Internal Medicine that finds that those risk calculators—four of which doctors use regularly—tend to overestimate the risk of heart attack in patients.

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